Expected Value and Hand Ranges in Poker
Congratulations! You have just finished the 10th lesson.
Now lets recap:
- expected value is a concept used to describe the average outcome of a given scenario
- you can use EV to make better decisions in many areas of life
- in order to calculate the expected value you have to know or estimate the probabilites of events happening
- when you have the probabilities you simply multiply them by their payouts
- and voila, you have the EV!
- hand range is all the hands your opponent could have in this spot
- you should never put your opponent on a specific hand, but rather on the range of hands he could likely play this way
- as the hand goes on, you can greatly narrow down your opponent’s range
- when you’ve got your opponent’s range narrowed down to only a few possibilities, you can estimate how likely each one is and use the expected value to help you decide on what you should do
Play at least 500 hands of real money cash games at full ring tables of the lowest possible stakes($0.01/$0.02) and continue on playing the base hands. Get comfortable putting your opponents on ranges of hands, rather than on specific hands. Use the hand ranges and the EV to make better decisions.
Remember that it doesn’t matter if you win or lose. What matters is making the right decisions. In the long run if you make EV+ decisions, you will make a profit, and if you make EV- decisions, you will make a loss.